EVALUATING THE IMPACT OF BLUE ECONOMY SECTORS ON NIGERIA’S ECONOMIC GROWTH: A TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS (1981–2024)

ABSTRACT : This study evaluates the impact of blue economy sectors on Nigeria’s economic growth over the period 1981–2024, using advanced econometric techniques to uncover long-run relationships. With increasing global emphasis on sustainable ocean-based development, understanding the economic potential of blue economy sectors such as fisheries, maritime transport, coastal and marine tourism, marine renewable energy, and marine biotechnology is crucial for a coastal nation like Nigeria seeking to diversify its economy beyond oil. The study employs Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and Johansen Cointegration Tests to assess the long-term contributions of these sectors to Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Unit root tests confirm the stationarity of the data, while diagnostic tests such as the Breusch-Godfrey serial correlation LM test, White’s heteroscedasticity test, and CUSUM stability test validate the robustness and reliability of the estimated models. Empirical results reveal that all five blue economy sectors have a statistically significant and positive long-run relationship with Nigeria’s GDP, with marine biotechnology and renewable energy emerging as untapped but high-potential contributors. These findings are consistent with similar studies in other developing and coastal economies and highlight the need for strategic investment in these underutilized sectors. The study further identifies key gaps in previous literature, including the neglect of integrated sectoral analysis, insufficient empirical coverage beyond 2020, and limited application of robust time-series models. The findings underscore the necessity of policy frameworks that prioritize blue economy development as a pathway to economic diversification, sustainable growth, and environmental stewardship. Recommendations and implications for policy and future research are provided.

KEYWORDS: Blue Economy, Economic Growth, Nigeria, Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS), Sustainable Development